Somehow, we’re already into Week 4 of the Canadian Football League season.
We’re entering the final weekend of June coming off a 3-1 week, which puts us at 9-2 overall. Let’s see if we can keep the good times going in Week 4.
Montreal Alouettes vs. Hamilton Tiger Cats — Friday, June 26, 7:30 p.m. EDT
The Alouettes are off to another fantastic start this season at 3-0, while Hamilton is looking for its first win of the year after a bye. On the Montreal side, things are obviously going very well, but they are facing a bit of adversity with Davis Alexander dealing with a hamstring injury.
The 26-year-old passer missed practice on Monday and Tuesday this week. Alexander has been fantastic to start the year, but if he is out, McLeod Bethel-Thompson would check in. This is why you keep a veteran QB around, so I don’t think there’ll be much of a drop-off for the offence. I don’t know if there’s a team in the league I trust the “next man up” mentality more than Montreal. I haven’t always been the biggest MBT supporter, but I certainly trust him in this offence.
Sean Thomas-Erlington and Austin Mack have also found themselves on the injury report this week, but this offence still has a number of options if those two can’t go. Montreal has three players — Mack, Tyson Philpot, and Tyler Snead — in the top 10 in receiving yards through three weeks. Yes, it’s still early, but this offence has shown to have so many ways to beat you.
Montreal has scored the most points per game in the CFL this year, while Hamilton is giving up the second-most points per game in the CFL through their two games. The Tiger-Cats have actually allowed more points than Montreal has, despite playing one fewer game.
The problems aren’t just on the defensive side, however, as this offence has been out of sync so far. I really thought with a fair amount of continuity on that side of the ball, Hamilton would thrive. That hasn’t been the case.
If you watch their games, something appears off with that group. They lead the league in passing yards per game but they’re third last in passing efficiency, so it’s not that they’re passing it well — they’re just passing a lot. I still think there’s a lot of talent on offence for the Ticats, so when a break-out happens, it could be big. Montreal’s defence doesn’t let a lot of teams break out, however, so this probably won’t be the week for them.
If you just look at the scores, it looks like Hamilton has been right there in their two matchups this season, but I think the scoreboard was very flattering to them against Calgary. The close scoreline with the Riders had way more to do with the Riders than it did with Hamilton keeping it close. Even with a few injury concerns, I feel this Montreal team should stay hot. In fact, I’m willing to bet on it.
PICK: Alouettes -2.5
B.C. Lions vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders — Saturday, June 27, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Mosaic Stadium is home to a West Semi-Final rematch where B.C. will just be happy to see someone other than the Blue Bombers after going 0-2 against Winnipeg in their recent home-and-home. Now they’re greeted by a Riders team that’s 3-0 but still has a lot of questions to answer.
We’ve done this piece three times this year, and three times someone has noticed that the Lions game isn’t mentioned. There are a couple of reasons for that.
Firstly, the only “edge” we have over oddsmakers is that they have to set a line for every game, but we don’t have to play every game. We get to pick and choose what we go in on. Secondly, so far, the Lions have been a difficult team for me to fully get a read on. They struggled against Winnipeg, a team we all believe to be very good, and they thrived against an Elks team that has stumbled out of the gate.
Truth be told, I still don’t have a strong grasp on what the Lions are yet. They’re sixth in points per game, but second in net offence. They’re middle of the pack in points allowed per game, but they have the second-best opponent net offence per game in the league. It’s also unclear if Nathan Rourke will be available this week. Thus, their debut in the 2025 best bets isn’t based on an epiphany I had about their group.
No, this play has more to do with the home side for this Wild West showdown. The Riders have been about as inconsistent as you can be while still holding a perfect record. Their offence will go through stretches where they look unstoppable. Then, they have stretches where they look like the football version of someone pretending to be busy while they work from home. Yes, they are technically working, but they aren’t actually doing anything productive.
This inconsistent nature is what’s made their games too close for comfort for fans of the Green and White. The Riders held a 17-point lead against Ottawa and a 14-point lead over Toronto. In each of those games, they needed big plays on defence and special teams to come away with a one-possession win.
Saskatchewan would have had a bigger lead against Hamilton, but Brett Lauther missed nine points worth of kicks (one missed extra point and three field goals, though one of those went for a rouge). The offence has looked great but then they go into auto-pilot for long stretches to let these teams back into it.
You can credit the Riders for getting out in front, but I worry that when they face tougher competition, some of these issues might be too much for them to overcome.
As I said before, I’m having trouble placing the Lions right now, but I’m fairly confident this is a tougher test than the Ottawa, Hamilton, Toronto trio the Riders faced to start the year. Saskatchewan’s offence should still put up some numbers, and they may even win this game, but I don’t trust them to cover the number against this Lions squad.
PICK: BC +5.5, OVER 51.5
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