The CFL is heading into its post-Canada Day schedule with Week 5 kicking off on Thursday at McMahon Stadium.
Last week was our first down week of the year, but we’re still going into July with a 10-5 mark, so let’s get back on track with three plays to target this week.
Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Calgary Stampeders — Thursday, July 3, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Week 5 will be a tough test for one of the most surprising teams in the league as the Calgary Stampeders host the Winnipeg Blue Bombers in the inaugural Stampede Bowl.
Those hoping for a high-flying Wild West Showdown on the eve of the Calgary Stampede might be disappointed as these two teams will enter this matchup allowing the fewest points per game in the CFL.
For Calgary to be included in that category comes as a surprise as the Stampeders turned over their entire defence and changed coordinators this past offseason. However, there might be a little noise in that number.
Yes, Calgary is only allowing 21.7 points per game but their last outing was played in a downpour against an Ottawa offence that was without its starting quarterback. The week before that, they faced the Argos who have been inconsistent at best this season. This will be a very real test for this defence against a healthy, fully-loaded Blue Bombers offence.
Calgary is heading into this game giving up the third-most rushing yards per game in the CFL. With Brady Oliveira returning from injury and Matthew Peterson running the ball well in his absence, this should be an area for the Blue Bombers to exploit this week. Winnipeg ranks third in the CFL in rushing yards despite only playing three games. Keep an eye on the prop markets as we get closer to kickoff — there might be another play in there for you this week.
There’s no question the Stampeders are an improved team and significantly better than their preseason 6.5-win total bet would have you believe. But with Brett Michaels performing at halftime, this rose still may have a thorn, and the Blue Bombers look like a group ready to exploit that.
PICK: Winnipeg -3.5, Under 50.5
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Toronto Argonauts — Friday, July 4, 7:30 p.m. EDT
This is a matchup where the winner will get to pretend they’re close to the Alouettes for a week based on the standings. It has been an ugly start to the season for both clubs, but each of them are coming off their first win of the season.
For Toronto, that victory came against Ottawa in a performance aided by a pair of 100-plus yard touchdowns from defence and special teams. Hamilton found the win column for the first time with a win over Montreal’s backup QB. Yes, wins are good — especially when they’re your first — but I don’t know if either of them provide a whole lot actionable for us.
This is actually a very interesting matchup when you look at the stats. Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in net offence allowed, but neither offence looks ready to take advantage of that as they’re both in the bottom half of the league.
Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards allowed, but — again — neither team looks poised to take advantage of that with these two teams sitting last and second-last in rush yards per game. There might be some room for growth in that number as the Roughriders have run the ball more often than both these teams combined, so it might not be that they can’t run the ball, just that they don’t run the ball.
The most fun matchup to watch on Friday night in The Six will be Hamilton’s passing offence against the Argos secondary. As mentioned above, Toronto’s defence isn’t what we would call “good” right now, but they have allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game this year, while Hamilton leads the league in passing yards per game. The winner of that matchup probably wins this game.
Not much separates these two sides. As basic as it may seem, I’ll go with the team with the quarterback I trust right now. While Nick Arbuckle leads the CFL in passing yards, I still would rather be on Mitchell’s side for this rivalry matchup.
PICK: Hamilton +1.5
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